Blog
Research, simulations, scorecards, and field notes from the body project.
Trump Pauses Iran Strike: Gulf Risk Model
Trump pauses Iran strike as Gulf states request restraint. A 16-agent simulation maps diplomacy, coercion, war risk, oil, and Israel escalation.
UAE Nuclear Power Plant Attack Risk
UAE nuclear power plant attack simulation finds 46% containment odds, with attribution and oil market pressure shaping Gulf escalation risk.
Gaza Ceasefire 2026: Hostage Deal Odds After Strike
Gaza ceasefire 2026 simulation finds a 34% phased hostage deal path, but Hamas fragmentation keeps deadlock risk at 27%.
Taiwan Independence Crisis After Trump-Xi Summit
Taiwan independence crisis simulation finds 38% managed stability, 27% mixed signaling, and 18% new Taiwan crisis risk after Trump-Xi summit.
Hormuz Crisis 2026: Gulf of Oman Seizure Risk
Hormuz crisis 2026 simulation finds 58% containment odds, 42% wider-crisis risk, and a 7-14 day trigger window after Hui Chuan.
Trump Xi Summit 2026: Trade Truce Odds
Trump Xi summit 2026 simulation finds a 42% chance of a limited trade truce, with export controls and Hormuz risk capping upside.
Russia Ukraine Ceasefire 2026: 34% Talks Path
Russia Ukraine ceasefire 2026 forecast: 16-agent simulation finds a 34% path to credible talks, with violations still likely.
AI Agent Revenue Autonomy Scorecard
AI agent revenue autonomy scorecard: a 5-point rubric for separating real agent businesses from demos, wallets, and hype.
Trump EU Trade Deal: Tariff Escalation Odds
Trump EU trade deal odds: a 16-agent simulation finds 40% chance of an interim framework and 62% odds of avoiding full tariff escalation.
Taiwan Strait Crisis: Arms Deal Risks
Taiwan Strait crisis forecast: a 16-agent simulation finds 38% gray-zone coercion odds after Taiwan's $25B US arms deal.
US Brazil Critical Minerals: Trump-Lula Deal Odds
US Brazil critical minerals deal odds: a 16-agent simulation finds 36% chance of a limited tariff pause and non-exclusive minerals framework.
Ukraine Drone Exports: 2026 Simulation
Ukraine drone exports are likely to become a narrow allied channel, with 44% odds of durable but limited wartime defense-tech sales.
Pakistan Afghanistan Border Conflict 2026
Pakistan Afghanistan border conflict 2026 simulation finds a 42% fragile ceasefire base case, with TTP spoilers driving escalation risk.
US China Trade Truce: 60-Day Risk Simulation
US China trade truce simulation finds 38% managed-truce base case, 31% sector retaliation risk, and Iran sanctions as the key trigger.
US Iran Talks: Hormuz Escalation Risk
US Iran talks simulation finds 42% coercive stalemate risk as Pakistan and Oman channels compete with Strait of Hormuz escalation pressure.
Spain NATO Defense Spending: Suspension Risk
Spain NATO defense spending simulation finds 48% negotiated off-ramp and only 6% formal alliance crisis risk over 45 days.
EU Russia Sanctions: 42% Partial Tightening
EU Russia sanctions simulation finds 42% probability of partial tightening, with the Ukraine loan improving endurance but enforcement deciding impact.
Gaza Flotilla 2026: Sanctions Risk Model
Gaza flotilla 2026 simulation finds 38% odds of contained sanctions pressure, 18% maritime crisis risk, and a bank de-risking cascade.
China Russia Energy: Alignment Risk Model
China Russia energy simulation finds 62% odds of managed alignment, 18% hard bloc risk, and sanctions risk centered on Chinese banks.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Prices 2026: Toll Risk
Strait of Hormuz oil prices 2026 risk model: 34% Oman deconfliction, 30% gray-zone toll, 13% tanker escalation.
NATO Eastern Flank 2026: Poland Troop Risk
NATO eastern flank 2026 risk model: 42% managed stabilization, 36% superficial reassurance after Poland troop promises.
Iran Peace Deal 2026: Hormuz Reopening Risk
Iran peace deal 2026 simulation: 38% fragile Hormuz reopening, 22% de-escalation, 17% renewed maritime escalation risk.
US Iran Nuclear Deal 2026: Endgame Odds
US Iran nuclear deal 2026 simulation: 34% limited framework, 31% coercive stalemate, and sanctions sequencing as the decisive hinge.
US Iran Peace Deal 2026: Qatar Talks Survive
US Iran peace deal 2026 simulation finds a 42% chance Qatar talks produce a thin de-escalation framework within 10 days.
Guatemala Gang Violence 2026: U.S. Strike Risk
Guatemala gang violence 2026 simulation: 38% contained operation, 24% informal regional template, 18% sovereignty shock risk.
Colombia Election 2026: U.S. Relations Risk
Colombia election 2026 simulation: 42% managed reset, 24% sovereignty backlash, and 12% hard security rupture risk with Washington.
US Iran Conflict 2026: Gulf Basing Risk
US Iran conflict 2026 simulation finds 42% managed escalation, 22% Gulf basing crisis, and 17% Strait shipping shock risk.
Ukraine Russia Peace Talks 2026: Attrition Wins
Ukraine Russia peace talks 2026 face a 42% attrition baseline as aid pressure, strike tempo, and diplomacy run in parallel.
Iran Israel Ceasefire 2026: Missile Stress Test
Iran Israel ceasefire 2026 simulation finds a 38% degraded-survival base case, 26% Lebanon spillover risk, and 12% collapse risk.
Russia Crypto Sanctions Evasion: 45% Partial Success
Multi-agent simulation finds 45% probability Russia achieves partial crypto sanctions circumvention by end of 2026, recovering 15-25% of pre-sanctions trade capacity through sovereign sidechain and P2P networks.
China Panama Canal: Simulation Finds Multipolar Shift
15-agent AI simulation finds 35% probability China leverages trade rules and Panama port disputes into multipolar realignment. Iran war oil lifeline is the decisive factor.
IEEPA Tariff Ruling and China Trade Strategy 2026
Multi-agent simulation finds 40% probability of muddling through after SCOTUS IEEPA ruling. China links Iran war, Panama Canal ports, and rare earth controls in unified trade coercion framework.
Petrodollar System Ending: 55% Erosion Probability
A 15-agent MiroFish simulation finds 55% probability of orderly petrodollar erosion within 18 months, driven by Iran's Hormuz fee structure and US coercive backfires. Dollar reserve share projected to fall to 48-50%.
Japan Arms Export Deregulation: 45% Cautious Regime
A 15-agent MiroFish simulation finds 45% probability that Japan's arms export deregulation survives as a cautious, constrained regime. The July 2026 constitutional court hearing is the pivotal moment. Taiwan excluded from framework.
Strait of Malacca Geopolitical Competition Simulation
15-agent simulation finds 40% probability of managed multilateral framework at Strait of Malacca. China's Malacca Dilemma drives 52% commercial rerouting. US chokepoint leverage is self-defeating, accelerating the diversification it sought to prevent.
Hormuz Ship Seizure: Escalation or Diplomatic Off-Ramp?
Multi-agent simulation of the US Navy seizure of an Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz finds 35% probability of partial compliance framework, 25% military escalation, and 15% Israeli strike risk.
US China Chip War: Export Controls Simulation 2026
15-agent simulation finds 45% probability US semiconductor export controls only partially constrain China AI chips. The DUV lithography loophole and Huawei Ascend 910C mass production undermine the restriction regime. China achieves 7nm self-sufficiency at 30% probability.
Iran Nuclear Deal 2026: P5 Trigger Simulation Results
15-agent simulation of Iran ceasefire expiry finds 42% probability of nuclear deal by May 7. The P5 unanimity trigger is the keystone. Oil targets $55-65. Israel's national security exception is the poison pill.
US UK Trade Deal Faces Iran War Pressure Test
Multi-agent simulation finds 45% probability of partial US UK trade deal downgrade via Jeddah Framework, with 25% risk of broader alliance fracture as Trump weaponizes trade against Starmer.
Stablecoin Sanctions on Iran Fuel BRICS Digital Currency
Multi-agent simulation finds 45% probability that US stablecoin sanctions on Iran fragment the dollar system and accelerate BRICS digital currency and e-CNY adoption by 2-3 years.
Trump Xi Summit 2026: 55% Beijing Framework
A 16-agent MiroFish simulation of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit finds 55% probability of a vague Beijing Framework. Iran escalation and implementation failure are the dominant risks.
US Iran Blockade Recession Risk: 50% by Q3 2026
A 13-agent swarm simulation finds 50% US recession probability and 55-60% global recession probability from the Iran blockade by Q3 2026. The Trump-Xi summit in May is the binary event that determines the outcome.